TGM's two-stage DCF values Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J) between $87.53 and $166.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $114.25. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$138.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $87.53 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $114.25 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $166.49 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $102.74 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$138.83
Market-Implied Growth
+6.3%/yr
vs -12.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$87.53 – $166.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for J (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $722.4M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$114.25
-17.7% vs $138.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $138.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $150 | $170 | $196 | $232 | $287 |
| 6.5% | $118 | $130 | $145 | $164 | $189 |
| 7.5% | $97.24 | $105 | $114 | $126 | $140 |
| 8.5% | $82.09 | $87.52 | $93.85 | $101 | $110 |
| 9.5% | $70.74 | $74.72 | $79.27 | $84.51 | $90.61 |
