Why we don't show a single “fair value” for IRWD
Even the conservative scenario ($12.54) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $12.54 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $16.66 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $24.70 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $5.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$3.63
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$16.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IRWD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $155.1M · 0.16B shares · net debt $369.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.66
+358.9% vs $3.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $22.20 | $25.21 | $29.22 | $34.84 | $43.25 |
| 6.5% | $17.30 | $19.11 | $21.37 | $24.27 | $28.14 |
| 7.5% | $14.04 | $15.23 | $16.66 | $18.40 | $20.58 |
| 8.5% | $11.70 | $12.54 | $13.51 | $14.66 | $16.04 |
| 9.5% | $9.96 | $10.57 | $11.27 | $12.08 | $13.02 |
