TGM's two-stage DCF values IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) between $46.87 and $71.01 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $55.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$83.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.0% | $46.87 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.0% | $55.34 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.0% | $71.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $38.08 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$83.69
Market-Implied Growth
+13.8%/yr
vs -4.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$46.87 – $71.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IPGP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $125.9M · 0.04B shares · net cash $403.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$55.34
-33.9% vs $83.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $83.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $65.46 | $70.05 | $75.64 | $82.62 | $91.59 |
| 8.0% | $56.83 | $59.96 | $63.64 | $68.06 | $73.45 |
| 9.0% | $50.51 | $52.75 | $55.34 | $58.35 | $61.90 |
| 10.0% | $45.67 | $47.35 | $49.24 | $51.41 | $53.91 |
| 11.0% | $41.85 | $43.14 | $44.59 | $46.21 | $48.04 |
