Why we don't show a single “fair value” for INVA
Even the conservative scenario ($44.51) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.9%/yr | 8.5% | $44.51 |
| Base case | 3.9%/yr | 7.5% | $59.26 |
| Optimistic | 6.9%/yr | 6.5% | $82.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $58.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$20.77
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$59.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for INVA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $187.4M · 0.07B shares · net cash $293.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$59.26
+185.3% vs $20.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $20.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $75.64 | $84.54 | $96.39 | $113 | $138 |
| 6.5% | $61.17 | $66.51 | $73.18 | $81.75 | $93.16 |
| 7.5% | $51.53 | $55.05 | $59.26 | $64.41 | $70.84 |
| 8.5% | $44.65 | $47.11 | $49.99 | $53.38 | $57.44 |
| 9.5% | $39.49 | $41.30 | $43.36 | $45.74 | $48.52 |
