TGM's two-stage DCF values ICU Medical, Inc. (ICUI) between $24.92 and $84.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $48.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$159.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 8.9% | $24.92 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 7.9% | $48.11 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 6.9% | $84.12 |
Current Price
$159.73
Market-Implied Growth
+31.6%/yr
vs +11.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.92 – $84.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ICUI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $82.2M · 0.02B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$48.11
-69.9% vs $159.73
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $159.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $73.35 | $86.31 | $103 | $126 | $157 |
| 6.9% | $51.28 | $59.38 | $69.32 | $81.79 | $97.92 |
| 7.9% | $36.14 | $41.62 | $48.11 | $55.91 | $65.48 |
| 8.9% | $25.12 | $29.03 | $33.55 | $38.83 | $45.08 |
| 9.9% | $16.74 | $19.66 | $22.96 | $26.73 | $31.09 |
