TGM's two-stage DCF values International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) between $140.26 and $300.09 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $194.35. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$214.19 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $140.26 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $194.35 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $300.09 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $383.90 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$214.19
Market-Implied Growth
+3.8%/yr
vs -5.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$140.26 – $300.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IBM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.7B · 0.94B shares · net debt $51.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$194.35
-9.3% vs $214.19
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $214.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $267 | $307 | $360 | $433 | $544 |
| 6.5% | $203 | $227 | $256 | $294 | $345 |
| 7.5% | $160 | $176 | $194 | $217 | $246 |
| 8.5% | $129 | $140 | $153 | $168 | $186 |
| 9.5% | $106 | $114 | $124 | $134 | $146 |
