Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HTLM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($0.66) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +59.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $0.41 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $0.52 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $0.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $33.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1.91
Market-Implied Growth
+59.3%/yr
Base-Case Model Value
$0.52
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HTLM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $885832 · 0.09B shares · net cash $11.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$0.52
-73.0% vs $1.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $0.64 | $0.70 | $0.79 | $0.91 | $1.10 |
| 6.5% | $0.53 | $0.57 | $0.62 | $0.68 | $0.77 |
| 7.5% | $0.46 | $0.49 | $0.52 | $0.55 | $0.60 |
| 8.5% | $0.41 | $0.43 | $0.45 | $0.47 | $0.50 |
| 9.5% | $0.37 | $0.38 | $0.40 | $0.42 | $0.44 |
