TGM's two-stage DCF values HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM) between $30.78 and $58.71 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.53. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7%/yr | 8.5% | $30.78 |
| Base case | 3.7%/yr | 7.5% | $41.53 |
| Optimistic | 6.7%/yr | 6.5% | $58.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $56.01 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.31
Market-Implied Growth
-3.0%/yr
vs +2.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.78 – $58.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HSTM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $54.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $36.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$41.53
+32.6% vs $31.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $53.45 | $59.93 | $68.55 | $80.62 | $98.71 |
| 6.5% | $42.92 | $46.81 | $51.66 | $57.90 | $66.21 |
| 7.5% | $35.90 | $38.46 | $41.53 | $45.28 | $49.96 |
| 8.5% | $30.89 | $32.68 | $34.78 | $37.24 | $40.20 |
| 9.5% | $27.13 | $28.45 | $29.95 | $31.69 | $33.70 |
