TGM's two-stage DCF values Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) between $37.86 and $90.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $57.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$88.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.2% | $37.86 |
| Base case | 2.8%/yr | 8.2% | $57.46 |
| Optimistic | 5.8%/yr | 7.2% | $90.30 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$88.13
Market-Implied Growth
+10.1%/yr
vs +0.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$37.86 – $90.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HSIC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $539.5M · 0.11B shares · net debt $3.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$57.46
-34.8% vs $88.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $88.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $79.47 | $90.35 | $104 | $122 | $147 |
| 7.2% | $60.36 | $67.36 | $75.85 | $86.34 | $99.65 |
| 8.2% | $46.96 | $51.79 | $57.46 | $64.21 | $72.39 |
| 9.2% | $37.05 | $40.55 | $44.57 | $49.23 | $54.70 |
| 10.2% | $29.42 | $32.05 | $35.02 | $38.40 | $42.28 |
