Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) between $40.37 and $97.83 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $63.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$78.67 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.7%/yr | 9.3% | $40.37 |
| Base case | 4.7%/yr | 8.3% | $63.21 |
| Optimistic | 7.7%/yr | 7.3% | $97.83 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $80.95 | |
Current Price
$78.67
Market-Implied Growth
+8.5%/yr
vs -4.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.37 – $97.83
model output — not a price target
HSIC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HSIC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $539.5M · 0.11B shares · net debt $3.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$70.40
-10.5% vs $78.67
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.67; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $101 | $111 | $125 | $142 | $165 |
| 7.3% | $77.54 | $84.01 | $91.82 | $101 | $114 |
| 8.3% | $61.13 | $65.40 | $70.40 | $76.35 | $83.54 |
| 9.3% | $48.97 | $51.93 | $55.32 | $59.25 | $63.85 |
| 10.3% | $39.61 | $41.73 | $44.13 | $46.85 | $49.98 |
About Henry Schein, Inc.
Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) is a global leader in delivering a comprehensive suite of healthcare products and services. The company caters to a diverse clientele across the globe, including dental professionals and laboratories, physician practices, governmental entities, and various institutional and alternative healthcare facilities. Its operations are organized into two principal segments: Health Care Distribution, and Technology and Value-Added Services. The Health Care Distribution division supplies an extensive array of dental goods, encompassing consumables (such as infection control items, impression materials, composites, anesthetics, and artificial teeth), specialized tools and equipment (like handpieces, dental chairs, delivery units, X-ray machinery, and advanced digital restoration systems), and personal protective equipment. This segment also provides essential equipment repair services. Furthermore, it distributes a broad range of medical supplies, including pharmaceuticals (both branded and generic), vaccines, surgical instruments, diagnostic kits, infection prevention solutions, imaging products, equipment, and nutritional supplements. The Technology and Value-Added Services segment focuses on empowering practices with advanced software, technology, and supplementary solutions. This includes specialized practice management software systems tailored for both dental and medical professionals. Beyond software, it delivers crucial value-added practice support services, such as non-recourse financial assistance, electronic services, comprehensive technology and network infrastructure support, hardware services, ongoing professional development programs, and expert consulting. Established in 1932, Henry Schein, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Melville, New York.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Distribution
- CEO
- Andrea Albertini