TGM's two-stage DCF values HP Inc. (HPQ) between $30.69 and $52.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.0% | $30.69 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.0% | $38.26 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.0% | $52.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.17
Market-Implied Growth
-2.2%/yr
vs -4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.69 – $52.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HPQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.1B · 0.91B shares · net debt $6.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.26
+22.7% vs $31.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $46.82 | $50.34 | $54.49 | $59.47 | $65.55 |
| 9.0% | $39.68 | $42.21 | $45.13 | $48.53 | $52.53 |
| 10.0% | $34.23 | $36.12 | $38.26 | $40.70 | $43.52 |
| 11.0% | $29.92 | $31.38 | $33.01 | $34.83 | $36.90 |
| 12.0% | $26.44 | $27.59 | $28.86 | $30.27 | $31.84 |
