TGM's two-stage DCF values Hermes International Societe en commandite par actions Unsponsored ADR (HESAY) between $110.03 and $176.90 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $139.93. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$181.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $110.03 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $139.93 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $176.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $88.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$181.64
Market-Implied Growth
+25.4%/yr
vs +27.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$110.03 – $176.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HESAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.6B · 1.05B shares · net cash $14.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$139.93
-23.0% vs $181.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $181.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $170 | $183 | $200 | $220 | $246 |
| 8.1% | $144 | $154 | $164 | $177 | $193 |
| 9.1% | $126 | $132 | $140 | $149 | $159 |
| 10.1% | $111 | $116 | $122 | $128 | $136 |
| 11.1% | $100 | $104 | $108 | $113 | $118 |
