TGM's two-stage DCF values Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) between $15.32 and $41.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $24.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$25.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.6% | $15.32 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 10.6% | $24.54 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 9.6% | $41.14 |
Current Price
$25.72
Market-Implied Growth
+2.5%/yr
vs -3.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.32 – $41.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HELE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $107.5M · 0.02B shares · net debt $761.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$24.54
-4.6% vs $25.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $34.67 | $38.63 | $43.24 | $48.66 | $55.14 |
| 9.6% | $26.32 | $29.25 | $32.57 | $36.40 | $40.84 |
| 10.6% | $19.81 | $22.04 | $24.54 | $27.36 | $30.57 |
| 11.6% | $14.60 | $16.34 | $18.27 | $20.42 | $22.83 |
| 12.6% | $10.32 | $11.71 | $13.24 | $14.92 | $16.79 |
