Why we don't show a single “fair value” for HEI-A
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($84.93) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$270.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.5% | $47.18 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.5% | $64.25 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.5% | $84.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 17, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $131.68 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$270.60
Market-Implied Growth
+54.6%/yr
vs +19.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$64.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HEI-A (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $525.0M · 0.19B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$64.25
-76.3% vs $270.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $270.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $80.88 | $88.04 | $96.63 | $107 | $120 |
| 8.5% | $66.87 | $71.88 | $77.71 | $84.61 | $92.87 |
| 9.5% | $56.40 | $60.07 | $64.25 | $69.08 | $74.70 |
| 10.5% | $48.30 | $51.08 | $54.20 | $57.73 | $61.76 |
| 11.5% | $41.85 | $44.01 | $46.41 | $49.09 | $52.09 |
