TGM's two-stage DCF values HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) between $71.30 and $273.06 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $154.55. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$402.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 10.7% | $71.30 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 9.7% | $154.55 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 8.7% | $273.06 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $348.31 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$402.59
Market-Implied Growth
+17.6%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$71.30 – $273.06
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HCA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2B · 0.22B shares · net debt $47.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$154.55
-61.6% vs $402.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $402.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $230 | $262 | $300 | $346 | $403 |
| 8.7% | $167 | $189 | $216 | $246 | $283 |
| 9.7% | $119 | $136 | $155 | $176 | $202 |
| 10.7% | $81.32 | $94.10 | $108 | $125 | $143 |
| 11.7% | $51.23 | $61.26 | $72.35 | $84.70 | $98.52 |
