HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) between $69.87 and $266.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $151.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$396.93 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 10.7% | $69.87 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 9.7% | $151.21 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 8.7% | $266.98 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $358.00 | |
Current Price
$396.93
Market-Implied Growth
+17.8%/yr
vs +1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$69.87 – $266.98
model output — not a price target
HCA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HCA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2B · 0.22B shares · net debt $47.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$179.14
-54.9% vs $396.93
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $396.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $278 | $305 | $337 | $376 | $424 |
| 8.7% | $206 | $224 | $245 | $270 | $300 |
| 9.7% | $152 | $165 | $179 | $196 | $215 |
| 10.7% | $110 | $119 | $129 | $141 | $155 |
| 11.7% | $75.82 | $82.77 | $90.46 | $99.05 | $109 |
About HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. The organization manages a network of general and acute care hospitals that provide a full spectrum of medical and surgical care, encompassing inpatient services, intensive care, cardiac treatment, diagnostic procedures, and emergency services. These hospitals additionally offer a broad range of outpatient care, such as ambulatory surgery, laboratory testing, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. Beyond its hospital infrastructure, HCA Healthcare operates numerous specialized outpatient facilities. These include standalone ambulatory surgery centers, dedicated emergency care facilities, urgent care clinics, walk-in clinics, advanced diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology treatment facilities, physician practices, and various other healthcare sites. Furthermore, the company oversees psychiatric hospitals, which offer diverse therapeutic programs. These services cater to child, adolescent, and adult psychiatric care, alongside adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling. As of December 31, 2021, HCA Healthcare's extensive portfolio included 182 hospitals, specifically 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals. Its network also featured 125 freestanding surgery centers and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers, all distributed across 20 states and England. Founded in 1968 and formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc., the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Nashville, Tennessee.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Care Facilities
- CEO
- Samuel N. Hazen