TGM's two-stage DCF values HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) between $100.78 and $326.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $193.68. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$423.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.9%/yr | 10.6% | $100.78 |
| Base case | 6.9%/yr | 9.6% | $193.68 |
| Optimistic | 9.9%/yr | 8.6% | $326.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $314.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$423.09
Market-Implied Growth
+18.0%/yr
vs +6.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$100.78 – $326.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for HCA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2B · 0.22B shares · net debt $47.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$193.68
-54.2% vs $423.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $423.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $279 | $316 | $360 | $413 | $479 |
| 8.6% | $207 | $233 | $263 | $298 | $341 |
| 9.6% | $153 | $172 | $194 | $219 | $247 |
| 10.6% | $111 | $125 | $141 | $160 | $181 |
| 11.6% | $76.97 | $88.28 | $101 | $115 | $130 |
