Genuine Parts Company (GPC) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Genuine Parts Company (GPC) between $63.64 and $163.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $102.36. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$116.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 8.6% | $63.64 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 7.6% | $102.36 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 6.6% | $163.79 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $132.18 | |
Current Price
$116.02
Market-Implied Growth
+10.0%/yr
vs +7.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$63.64 – $163.79
model output — not a price target
GPC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GPC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $803.4M · 0.14B shares · net debt $6.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$134.44
+15.9% vs $116.02
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $116.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $199 | $225 | $258 | $305 | $375 |
| 6.6% | $148 | $163 | $181 | $205 | $236 |
| 7.6% | $114 | $123 | $134 | $148 | $165 |
| 8.6% | $89.58 | $95.86 | $103 | $112 | $122 |
| 9.6% | $71.39 | $75.79 | $80.81 | $86.58 | $93.30 |
About Genuine Parts Company
Genuine Parts Company, established in Atlanta, Georgia in 1928, functions as a prominent global distributor specializing in automotive and industrial replacement parts, alongside associated materials. The company’s operations are segmented into its Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The Automotive Parts Group supplies an extensive inventory of replacement components for a wide spectrum of vehicles, including hybrid and electric models, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, recreational and farm vehicles, small engines, marine equipment, and heavy-duty machinery, as well as various accessory and supply items. Its diverse clientele encompasses automotive repair facilities, service stations, fleet operators, vehicle dealerships (cars and trucks), leasing firms, bus and truck lines, large-scale retailers, farms, industrial enterprises, and individual consumers. Concurrently, the Industrial Parts Group distributes critical industrial replacement parts and supplies. These offerings include bearings, mechanical and electrical power transmission products, advanced industrial automation and robotics solutions, hoses, hydraulic and pneumatic components, general industrial and safety supplies, and material handling equipment. This segment serves original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) customers across numerous industries, such as equipment and machinery manufacturing, food and beverage production, forestry, primary metals, pulp and paper, mining, automotive, oil and gas, petrochemical, pharmaceutical, power generation, alternative energy, government, transportation, and port operations. Furthermore, the company provides a range of value-added services and repairs. These include the assembly and repair of gearboxes, fluid power systems, and process pumps; hydraulic drive shaft repair; electrical panel assembly and repair; and the manufacture and assembly of hoses and gaskets. Genuine Parts Company maintains a substantial international footprint, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Indonesia, and Singapore.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- William Stengel