TGM's two-stage DCF values Genuine Parts Company (GPC) between $62.11 and $162.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $100.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$134.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.0%/yr | 8.5% | $62.11 |
| Base case | 7.0%/yr | 7.5% | $100.89 |
| Optimistic | 10.0%/yr | 6.5% | $162.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $119.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$134.01
Market-Implied Growth
+11.9%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$62.11 – $162.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GPC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $803.4M · 0.14B shares · net debt $6.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$100.89
-24.7% vs $134.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $134.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $144 | $168 | $200 | $244 | $310 |
| 6.5% | $106 | $120 | $138 | $161 | $191 |
| 7.5% | $80.35 | $89.69 | $101 | $115 | $132 |
| 8.5% | $62.08 | $68.63 | $76.25 | $85.25 | $96.04 |
| 9.5% | $48.40 | $53.20 | $58.68 | $64.99 | $72.34 |
