Why we don't show a single “fair value” for GNRC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($88.11) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$197.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.0%/yr | 12.5% | $49.01 |
| Base case | 9.0%/yr | 11.5% | $65.64 |
| Optimistic | 12.0%/yr | 10.5% | $88.11 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $67.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$197.54
Market-Implied Growth
+34.7%/yr
vs +9.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$65.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GNRC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $330.4M · 0.06B shares · net debt $991.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$65.64
-66.8% vs $197.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $197.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $79.47 | $84.53 | $90.31 | $96.97 | $105 |
| 10.5% | $68.26 | $72.10 | $76.42 | $81.31 | $86.88 |
| 11.5% | $59.32 | $62.31 | $65.64 | $69.34 | $73.51 |
| 12.5% | $52.02 | $54.40 | $57.03 | $59.92 | $63.13 |
| 13.5% | $45.95 | $47.89 | $50.00 | $52.30 | $54.83 |
