TGM's two-stage DCF values Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. (GDYN) between $11.70 and $17.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $14.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$7.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.6% | $11.70 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.6% | $14.14 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.6% | $17.24 |
Current Price
$7.83
Market-Implied Growth
-6.3%/yr
vs +24.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$11.70 – $17.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GDYN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.4M · 0.08B shares · net cash $342.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.14
+80.6% vs $7.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $16.68 | $17.87 | $19.36 | $21.26 | $23.77 |
| 7.6% | $14.49 | $15.29 | $16.23 | $17.39 | $18.82 |
| 8.6% | $12.93 | $13.49 | $14.14 | $14.90 | $15.81 |
| 9.6% | $11.76 | $12.17 | $12.64 | $13.17 | $13.80 |
| 10.6% | $10.85 | $11.16 | $11.51 | $11.91 | $12.36 |
