TGM's two-stage DCF values GDEV Inc. (GDEV) between $20.01 and $29.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $23.78. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$11.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -18.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.4% | $20.01 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 10.4% | $23.78 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 9.4% | $29.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $89.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$11.91
Market-Implied Growth
-18.0%/yr
vs +2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$20.01 – $29.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for GDEV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $28.6M · 0.02B shares · net cash $58.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$23.78
+99.7% vs $11.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $27.52 | $29.01 | $30.75 | $32.80 | $35.28 |
| 9.4% | $24.43 | $25.51 | $26.76 | $28.19 | $29.87 |
| 10.4% | $22.03 | $22.85 | $23.78 | $24.83 | $26.03 |
| 11.4% | $20.12 | $20.76 | $21.47 | $22.27 | $23.16 |
| 12.4% | $18.56 | $19.07 | $19.63 | $20.25 | $20.94 |
