TGM's two-stage DCF values Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) between $42.10 and $75.60 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $56.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$115.86 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.6%/yr | 11.3% | $42.10 |
| Base case | 15.6%/yr | 10.3% | $56.09 |
| Optimistic | 18.6%/yr | 9.3% | $75.60 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $118.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$115.86
Market-Implied Growth
+33.1%/yr
vs +15.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$42.10 – $75.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FSS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $177.4M · 0.06B shares · net debt $498.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$56.09
-51.6% vs $115.86
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $115.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $68.89 | $74.04 | $80.06 | $87.22 | $95.86 |
| 9.3% | $58.27 | $62.01 | $66.29 | $71.25 | $77.05 |
| 10.3% | $50.10 | $52.91 | $56.09 | $59.69 | $63.81 |
| 11.3% | $43.62 | $45.80 | $48.23 | $50.94 | $54.00 |
| 12.3% | $38.37 | $40.10 | $42.00 | $44.10 | $46.44 |
