TGM's two-stage DCF values Fox Factory Holding Corp. (FOXF) between $13.27 and $30.84 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.68. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$19.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.3%/yr | 11.9% | $13.27 |
| Base case | 5.3%/yr | 10.9% | $20.68 |
| Optimistic | 8.3%/yr | 9.9% | $30.84 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$19.43
Market-Implied Growth
+4.4%/yr
vs +5.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.27 – $30.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FOXF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $109.8M · 0.04B shares · net debt $631.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$20.68
+6.4% vs $19.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $19.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $26.92 | $29.31 | $32.07 | $35.29 | $39.11 |
| 9.9% | $21.81 | $23.59 | $25.60 | $27.91 | $30.57 |
| 10.9% | $17.79 | $19.15 | $20.68 | $22.40 | $24.34 |
| 11.9% | $14.54 | $15.62 | $16.81 | $18.12 | $19.60 |
| 12.9% | $11.87 | $12.73 | $13.68 | $14.72 | $15.87 |
