Fox Corporation (FOXA) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Fox Corporation (FOXA) between $52.12 and $100.05 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $69.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$49.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $52.12 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 7.5% | $69.31 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 6.5% | $100.05 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $124.30 | |
Current Price
$49.39
Market-Implied Growth
-4.7%/yr
vs -0.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.12 – $100.05
model output — not a price target
FOXA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FOXA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.44B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$69.53
+40.8% vs $49.39
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $49.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $94.56 | $105 | $118 | $137 | $164 |
| 6.5% | $74.81 | $80.52 | $87.65 | $96.83 | $109 |
| 7.5% | $61.66 | $65.23 | $69.53 | $74.78 | $81.34 |
| 8.5% | $52.27 | $54.66 | $57.45 | $60.74 | $64.69 |
| 9.5% | $45.25 | $46.91 | $48.82 | $51.02 | $53.58 |
About Fox Corporation
Fox Corporation (FOXA) is a prominent U.S.-based media entity, primarily engaged in the creation and distribution of news, sports, and entertainment content. Its operational framework is divided into three main segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, and a category for "Other, Corporate and Eliminations." The Cable Network Programming segment is dedicated to developing and licensing a broad spectrum of news, business news, and sports programming. This content is distributed predominantly within the U.S. via both traditional and digital multi-channel video providers (MVPDs), as well as various online platforms. This division includes well-known channels such as the national cable news outlet FOX News and the business news channel FOX Business. Sports enthusiasts are served by multi-sport networks like FS1 and FS2, niche offerings such as FOX Sports Racing (focused on motor sports), FOX Soccer Plus (for live soccer and rugby), and the Spanish-language FOX Deportes, alongside the Big Ten Network. Fox's Television division is responsible for acquiring, producing, marketing, and broadcasting various programs. Key components of this segment include the national FOX broadcast network, recognized for its sports and entertainment lineup; Tubi, an advertising-supported video-on-demand streaming service; Fox Alternative Entertainment, a production studio specializing in unscripted and alternative shows; MyNetworkTV, a programming syndication service; and Blockchain Creative Labs, which focuses on developing and monetizing Web3 content. This segment also holds ownership and operating rights for 29 local broadcast television stations. Lastly, the "Other, Corporate and Eliminations" segment primarily manages the FOX Studios Lot in Los Angeles, California. This extensive facility offers comprehensive production and post-production amenities, featuring 15 sound stages, two broadcast studios, various theaters, screening rooms, editing suites, and numerous other resources vital for television and film productions. The company was established in 2018 and maintains its corporate headquarters in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- CEO
- Lachlan Keith Murdoch