Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FLEX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($34.40) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$116.61 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +41.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.8%/yr | 12.5% | $20.31 |
| Base case | 3.8%/yr | 11.5% | $26.30 |
| Optimistic | 6.8%/yr | 10.5% | $34.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $28.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$116.61
Market-Implied Growth
+41.2%/yr
vs +3.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$26.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FLEX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $924.0M · 0.37B shares · net debt $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.30
-77.4% vs $116.61
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $116.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $31.16 | $32.93 | $34.96 | $37.29 | $40.01 |
| 10.5% | $27.23 | $28.57 | $30.09 | $31.80 | $33.75 |
| 11.5% | $24.09 | $25.14 | $26.30 | $27.60 | $29.07 |
| 12.5% | $21.52 | $22.36 | $23.28 | $24.29 | $25.42 |
| 13.5% | $19.38 | $20.06 | $20.80 | $21.61 | $22.50 |
