Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FIX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($478.32) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1,615.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +59.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $315.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $392.12 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $478.32 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $942.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,615.14
Market-Implied Growth
+59.2%/yr
vs +32.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$392.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FIX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $641.4M · 0.04B shares · net cash $498.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$392.12
-75.7% vs $1615.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1615.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $459 | $483 | $511 | $544 | $581 |
| 10.5% | $405 | $423 | $444 | $468 | $495 |
| 11.5% | $362 | $376 | $392 | $410 | $430 |
| 12.5% | $327 | $338 | $351 | $365 | $380 |
| 13.5% | $297 | $307 | $317 | $328 | $340 |
