TGM's two-stage DCF values Ferrovial SE (FER) between $17.49 and $41.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.82. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$58.73 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.1%/yr | 9.1% | $17.49 |
| Base case | 7.1%/yr | 8.1% | $26.82 |
| Optimistic | 10.1%/yr | 7.1% | $41.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $76.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$58.73
Market-Implied Growth
+22.5%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.49 – $41.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FER (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.73B shares · net debt $7.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.82
-54.3% vs $58.73
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $58.73; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $36.62 | $41.52 | $47.78 | $56.06 | $67.51 |
| 7.1% | $28.09 | $31.21 | $35.02 | $39.74 | $45.77 |
| 8.1% | $22.15 | $24.30 | $26.82 | $29.83 | $33.49 |
| 9.1% | $17.79 | $19.33 | $21.11 | $23.17 | $25.60 |
| 10.1% | $14.44 | $15.60 | $16.91 | $18.40 | $20.11 |
