Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FCX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($12.75) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$76.63 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.7%/yr | 12.0% | $5.99 |
| Base case | 6.7%/yr | 11.0% | $8.84 |
| Optimistic | 9.7%/yr | 10.0% | $12.75 |
Current Price
$76.63
Market-Implied Growth
+55.7%/yr
vs +6.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$8.84
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FCX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 1.44B shares · net debt $7.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$8.84
-88.5% vs $76.63
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $76.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $11.25 | $12.17 | $13.22 | $14.45 | $15.90 |
| 10.0% | $9.28 | $9.97 | $10.74 | $11.62 | $12.64 |
| 11.0% | $7.73 | $8.26 | $8.84 | $9.50 | $10.25 |
| 12.0% | $6.48 | $6.89 | $7.35 | $7.86 | $8.42 |
| 13.0% | $5.44 | $5.78 | $6.14 | $6.54 | $6.99 |
