Why we don't show a single “fair value” for FCHL
Even the conservative scenario ($6.69) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $6.69 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $8.32 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $11.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $154.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$0.93
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$8.32
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for FCHL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $485575 · 0.00B shares · net cash $1.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$8.32
+794.6% vs $0.93
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $10.52 | $11.71 | $13.30 | $15.53 | $18.87 |
| 6.5% | $8.57 | $9.29 | $10.19 | $11.34 | $12.87 |
| 7.5% | $7.28 | $7.75 | $8.32 | $9.01 | $9.87 |
| 8.5% | $6.35 | $6.69 | $7.07 | $7.53 | $8.07 |
| 9.5% | $5.66 | $5.90 | $6.18 | $6.50 | $6.87 |
