TGM's two-stage DCF values Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) between $51.03 and $94.62 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $67.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$71.15 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.9%/yr | 8.6% | $51.03 |
| Base case | 8.9%/yr | 7.6% | $67.88 |
| Optimistic | 11.9%/yr | 6.6% | $94.62 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $63.45 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$71.15
Market-Implied Growth
+10.1%/yr
vs +0.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$51.03 – $94.62
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXPO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $116.7M · 0.05B shares · net cash $215.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$67.88
-4.6% vs $71.15
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $71.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $86.71 | $96.78 | $110 | $129 | $156 |
| 6.6% | $70.12 | $76.23 | $83.83 | $93.52 | $106 |
| 7.6% | $58.99 | $63.04 | $67.88 | $73.76 | $81.08 |
| 8.6% | $51.01 | $53.86 | $57.18 | $61.08 | $65.74 |
| 9.6% | $45.01 | $47.11 | $49.50 | $52.25 | $55.45 |
