TGM's two-stage DCF values Expensify, Inc. (EXFY) between $2.44 and $3.52 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $2.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.2%/yr | 12.5% | $2.44 |
| Base case | 4.2%/yr | 11.5% | $2.90 |
| Optimistic | 7.2%/yr | 10.5% | $3.52 |
Current Price
$2.23
Market-Implied Growth
-4.4%/yr
vs +4.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.44 – $3.52
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXFY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $18.2M · 0.10B shares · net cash $58.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.90
+29.8% vs $2.23
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.27 | $3.40 | $3.56 | $3.74 | $3.95 |
| 10.5% | $2.97 | $3.07 | $3.19 | $3.32 | $3.47 |
| 11.5% | $2.73 | $2.81 | $2.90 | $3.00 | $3.11 |
| 12.5% | $2.53 | $2.59 | $2.66 | $2.74 | $2.83 |
| 13.5% | $2.36 | $2.42 | $2.47 | $2.54 | $2.60 |
