TGM's two-stage DCF values Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) between $47.11 and $90.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $63.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$54.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.1%/yr | 8.5% | $47.11 |
| Base case | 16.1%/yr | 7.5% | $63.80 |
| Optimistic | 19.1%/yr | 6.5% | $90.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 21, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $183.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$54.08
Market-Implied Growth
+11.9%/yr
vs +16.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$47.11 – $90.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EXEL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $429.0M · 0.25B shares · net cash $482.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$63.80
+18.0% vs $54.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $54.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $83.14 | $93.61 | $108 | $127 | $156 |
| 6.5% | $66.07 | $72.35 | $80.19 | $90.27 | $104 |
| 7.5% | $54.73 | $58.86 | $63.80 | $69.84 | $77.39 |
| 8.5% | $46.66 | $49.54 | $52.91 | $56.88 | $61.64 |
| 9.5% | $40.62 | $42.74 | $45.15 | $47.93 | $51.17 |
