Why we don't show a single “fair value” for EW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($42.13) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$93.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.1%/yr | 9.4% | $24.95 |
| Base case | 6.1%/yr | 8.4% | $31.80 |
| Optimistic | 9.1%/yr | 7.4% | $42.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$93.04
Market-Implied Growth
+35.8%/yr
vs +6.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$31.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $791.5M · 0.58B shares · net cash $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$31.80
-65.8% vs $93.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $38.76 | $42.12 | $46.34 | $51.79 | $59.12 |
| 7.4% | $32.75 | $34.94 | $37.58 | $40.82 | $44.88 |
| 8.4% | $28.48 | $30.01 | $31.80 | $33.92 | $36.46 |
| 9.4% | $25.30 | $26.42 | $27.70 | $29.18 | $30.90 |
| 10.4% | $22.84 | $23.69 | $24.64 | $25.72 | $26.95 |
