TGM's two-stage DCF values EverCommerce Inc. (EVCM) between $6.06 and $12.99 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $8.81. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$9.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 9.3% | $6.06 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 8.3% | $8.81 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 7.3% | $12.99 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $4.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$9.22
Market-Implied Growth
+8.9%/yr
vs +17.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$6.06 – $12.99
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EVCM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $87.9M · 0.18B shares · net debt $397.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$8.81
-4.5% vs $9.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $9.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $11.66 | $13.05 | $14.80 | $17.09 | $20.19 |
| 7.3% | $9.19 | $10.09 | $11.18 | $12.52 | $14.21 |
| 8.3% | $7.45 | $8.08 | $8.81 | $9.68 | $10.73 |
| 9.3% | $6.16 | $6.62 | $7.14 | $7.74 | $8.45 |
| 10.3% | $5.17 | $5.51 | $5.90 | $6.34 | $6.84 |
