TGM's two-stage DCF values Elastic N.V. (ESTC) between $45.98 and $76.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $59.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$99.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.0% | $45.98 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.0% | $59.75 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.0% | $76.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$99.91
Market-Implied Growth
+31.8%/yr
vs +21.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$45.98 – $76.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ESTC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $203.6M · 0.10B shares · net cash $193.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$59.75
-40.2% vs $99.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $99.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $73.66 | $79.95 | $87.63 | $97.22 | $110 |
| 8.0% | $61.81 | $66.09 | $71.13 | $77.18 | $84.57 |
| 9.0% | $53.16 | $56.22 | $59.75 | $63.87 | $68.72 |
| 10.0% | $46.57 | $48.85 | $51.44 | $54.39 | $57.79 |
| 11.0% | $41.39 | $43.14 | $45.10 | $47.30 | $49.79 |
