Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ESLT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($165.57) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$690.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +59.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.2%/yr | 8.5% | $87.25 |
| Base case | 11.2%/yr | 7.5% | $117.39 |
| Optimistic | 14.2%/yr | 6.5% | $165.57 |
Current Price
$690.33
Market-Implied Growth
+59.5%/yr
vs +11.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$117.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ESLT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $177.3M · 0.05B shares · net cash $245.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$117.39
-83.0% vs $690.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $690.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $152 | $170 | $195 | $230 | $282 |
| 6.5% | $121 | $133 | $147 | $164 | $188 |
| 7.5% | $101 | $109 | $117 | $128 | $142 |
| 8.5% | $86.84 | $91.99 | $97.99 | $105 | $114 |
| 9.5% | $76.08 | $79.86 | $84.16 | $89.12 | $94.91 |
