TGM's two-stage DCF values Escalade, Incorporated (ESCA) between $35.16 and $64.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $45.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$18.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -17.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $35.16 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $45.07 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $64.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $27.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.37
Market-Implied Growth
-17.6%/yr
vs -3.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$35.16 – $64.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ESCA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $31.3M · 0.01B shares · net debt $6.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$45.07
+145.4% vs $18.37
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $58.44 | $65.69 | $75.36 | $88.89 | $109 |
| 6.5% | $46.63 | $50.99 | $56.43 | $63.42 | $72.74 |
| 7.5% | $38.76 | $41.63 | $45.07 | $49.28 | $54.52 |
| 8.5% | $33.14 | $35.15 | $37.50 | $40.27 | $43.59 |
| 9.5% | $28.92 | $30.40 | $32.09 | $34.03 | $36.30 |
