TGM's two-stage DCF values The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) between $66.96 and $155.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $101.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$173.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.0%/yr | 8.6% | $66.96 |
| Base case | 14.0%/yr | 7.6% | $101.23 |
| Optimistic | 17.0%/yr | 6.6% | $155.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $103.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$173.54
Market-Implied Growth
+25.2%/yr
vs +10.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$66.96 – $155.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ENSG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $229.7M · 0.06B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$101.23
-41.7% vs $173.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $173.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $140 | $161 | $189 | $227 | $283 |
| 6.6% | $106 | $119 | $134 | $154 | $181 |
| 7.6% | $82.88 | $91.24 | $101 | $113 | $128 |
| 8.6% | $66.41 | $72.29 | $79.13 | $87.18 | $96.80 |
| 9.6% | $54.05 | $58.37 | $63.30 | $68.97 | $75.55 |
