Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) between $43.66 and $72.96 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $56.12. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$54.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.0%/yr | 12.5% | $43.66 |
| Base case | 10.0%/yr | 11.5% | $56.12 |
| Optimistic | 13.0%/yr | 10.5% | $72.96 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $21.99 | |
Current Price
$54.59
Market-Implied Growth
+9.3%/yr
vs +10.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$43.66 – $72.96
model output — not a price target
ENPH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ENPH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $533.2M · 0.13B shares · net debt $738.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$72.22
+32.3% vs $54.59
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $54.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $89.61 | $93.48 | $97.89 | $103 | $109 |
| 10.5% | $77.47 | $80.26 | $83.40 | $86.96 | $91.03 |
| 11.5% | $67.84 | $69.92 | $72.22 | $74.80 | $77.69 |
| 12.5% | $60.05 | $61.62 | $63.35 | $65.26 | $67.39 |
| 13.5% | $53.61 | $54.83 | $56.15 | $57.61 | $59.21 |
About Enphase Energy, Inc.
Enphase Energy, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, is dedicated to developing, manufacturing, and distributing home energy solutions for the global solar photovoltaic industry. Their core offering is a semiconductor-based microinverter, designed to convert energy at the individual solar module level. This technology seamlessly integrates with their proprietary networking and software, providing advanced energy monitoring and control capabilities. The company's product portfolio also includes AC battery storage systems, the Envoy communications gateway, the cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service, and various related accessories. Enphase sells its offerings through multiple channels, reaching solar distributors, large installers directly, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), strategic partners, and individual homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program and online store. Established in 2006, Enphase Energy, Inc. is headquartered in Fremont, California.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Solar
- CEO
- Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman