TGM's two-stage DCF values Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) between $34.35 and $57.85 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $44.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$36.35 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.6%/yr | 12.5% | $34.35 |
| Base case | 4.6%/yr | 11.5% | $44.34 |
| Optimistic | 7.6%/yr | 10.5% | $57.85 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.03 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$36.35
Market-Implied Growth
+0.2%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$34.35 – $57.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ENPH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $533.2M · 0.13B shares · net debt $738.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$44.34
+22.0% vs $36.35
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.35; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $52.47 | $55.45 | $58.84 | $62.74 | $67.30 |
| 10.5% | $45.89 | $48.15 | $50.68 | $53.55 | $56.82 |
| 11.5% | $40.63 | $42.39 | $44.34 | $46.52 | $48.97 |
| 12.5% | $36.33 | $37.74 | $39.28 | $40.98 | $42.87 |
| 13.5% | $32.75 | $33.89 | $35.14 | $36.49 | $37.98 |
