Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ELF
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($37.23) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$104.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $20.86 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $28.59 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $37.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.96 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$104.58
Market-Implied Growth
+48.8%/yr
vs +38.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$28.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ELF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $107.7M · 0.06B shares · net debt $549.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$28.59
-72.7% vs $104.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $104.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $35.29 | $37.75 | $40.55 | $43.79 | $47.56 |
| 10.5% | $29.86 | $31.72 | $33.81 | $36.18 | $38.88 |
| 11.5% | $25.53 | $26.98 | $28.59 | $30.38 | $32.40 |
| 12.5% | $22.01 | $23.16 | $24.43 | $25.83 | $27.38 |
| 13.5% | $19.09 | $20.02 | $21.04 | $22.15 | $23.38 |
