TGM's two-stage DCF values eBay Inc. (EBAY) between $30.98 and $55.41 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $40.61. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$109.39 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.9% | $30.98 |
| Base case | 2.8%/yr | 10.9% | $40.61 |
| Optimistic | 5.8%/yr | 9.9% | $55.41 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$109.39
Market-Implied Growth
+24.5%/yr
vs -6.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.98 – $55.41
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EBAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.9B · 0.44B shares · net debt $5.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$40.61
-62.9% vs $109.39
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $109.39; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $49.59 | $53.03 | $56.99 | $61.62 | $67.10 |
| 9.9% | $42.24 | $44.79 | $47.69 | $51.01 | $54.83 |
| 10.9% | $36.45 | $38.41 | $40.61 | $43.08 | $45.88 |
| 11.9% | $31.77 | $33.32 | $35.03 | $36.93 | $39.05 |
| 12.9% | $27.92 | $29.17 | $30.53 | $32.03 | $33.68 |
