TGM's two-stage DCF values Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) between $186.41 and $382.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $261.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$206.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.9%/yr | 8.5% | $186.41 |
| Base case | 12.9%/yr | 7.5% | $261.84 |
| Optimistic | 15.9%/yr | 6.5% | $382.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $380.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$206.24
Market-Implied Growth
+7.6%/yr
vs +3.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$186.41 – $382.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DRI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.0B · 0.11B shares · net debt $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$261.84
+27.0% vs $206.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $206.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $348 | $395 | $458 | $545 | $676 |
| 6.5% | $272 | $300 | $335 | $380 | $440 |
| 7.5% | $221 | $240 | $262 | $289 | $323 |
| 8.5% | $185 | $198 | $213 | $231 | $252 |
| 9.5% | $158 | $167 | $178 | $191 | $205 |
