Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DOCU
Even the conservative scenario ($103.97) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$50.44 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -9.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.1%/yr | 9.6% | $103.97 |
| Base case | 15.1%/yr | 8.6% | $136.64 |
| Optimistic | 18.1%/yr | 7.6% | $185.37 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $79.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$50.44
Market-Implied Growth
-9.6%/yr
vs +15.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$136.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DOCU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $903.7M · 0.19B shares · net cash $602.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$136.64
+170.9% vs $50.44
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $50.44; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $170 | $186 | $206 | $231 | $265 |
| 7.6% | $141 | $152 | $165 | $180 | $199 |
| 8.6% | $121 | $128 | $137 | $147 | $159 |
| 9.6% | $105 | $110 | $117 | $124 | $132 |
| 10.6% | $92.91 | $97.05 | $102 | $107 | $113 |
