TGM's two-stage DCF values DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC) between $7.86 and $17.05 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $11.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.19 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.2% | $7.86 |
| Base case | 2.7%/yr | 11.2% | $11.46 |
| Optimistic | 5.7%/yr | 10.2% | $17.05 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $21.25 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.19
Market-Implied Growth
-8.3%/yr
vs +3.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.86 – $17.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DLHC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $24.8M · 0.01B shares · net debt $127.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$11.46
+173.4% vs $4.19
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $14.82 | $16.08 | $17.52 | $19.19 | $21.16 |
| 10.2% | $12.08 | $13.03 | $14.10 | $15.31 | $16.70 |
| 11.2% | $9.91 | $10.64 | $11.46 | $12.37 | $13.40 |
| 12.2% | $8.14 | $8.72 | $9.36 | $10.07 | $10.86 |
| 13.2% | $6.68 | $7.15 | $7.66 | $8.22 | $8.84 |
