Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DCGO
Even the conservative scenario ($5.10) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.6%/yr | 9.8% | $5.10 |
| Base case | 11.6%/yr | 8.8% | $6.55 |
| Optimistic | 14.6%/yr | 7.8% | $8.70 |
Current Price
$0.36
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$6.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DCGO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.2M · 0.10B shares · net cash $50.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.55
+1695.3% vs $0.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $8.01 | $8.68 | $9.50 | $10.55 | $11.91 |
| 7.8% | $6.76 | $7.21 | $7.75 | $8.39 | $9.19 |
| 8.8% | $5.86 | $6.18 | $6.55 | $6.99 | $7.50 |
| 9.8% | $5.18 | $5.42 | $5.69 | $6.00 | $6.35 |
| 10.8% | $4.65 | $4.83 | $5.03 | $5.26 | $5.52 |
