Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) between $36.92 and $69.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $49.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$78.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.0%/yr | 8.5% | $36.92 |
| Base case | 5.0%/yr | 7.5% | $49.32 |
| Optimistic | 8.0%/yr | 6.5% | $69.14 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $71.74 | |
Current Price
$78.59
Market-Implied Growth
+16.7%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$36.92 – $69.14
model output — not a price target
CTVA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTVA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.67B shares · net cash $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$53.81
-31.5% vs $78.59
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $72.00 | $79.31 | $89.06 | $103 | $123 |
| 6.5% | $57.61 | $61.79 | $67.01 | $73.73 | $82.69 |
| 7.5% | $48.05 | $50.67 | $53.81 | $57.66 | $62.46 |
| 8.5% | $41.24 | $42.99 | $45.03 | $47.44 | $50.34 |
| 9.5% | $36.16 | $37.38 | $38.77 | $40.38 | $42.26 |
About Corteva, Inc.
Corteva, Inc. is an agricultural company operating primarily through two distinct divisions: Seed and Crop Protection. Its Seed division specializes in developing and supplying cutting-edge genetic material and plant traits designed to maximize agricultural yields. These innovations bolster crop resilience against adverse weather conditions, diseases, insect infestations, and herbicides, while also improving their nutritional qualities. This segment further provides digital platforms to empower farmers in optimizing their product choices, boosting harvests, and enhancing profitability. The Crop Protection division offers a range of products aimed at defending crops from weeds, pests, and various pathogens. It also contributes to overall plant health via nitrogen management techniques and advanced seed treatments. This segment's offerings include herbicides, insecticides, nitrogen stabilizers, and solutions for pasture and range maintenance. Serving the worldwide agricultural input sector, Corteva, Inc. has a broad international presence, spanning North America, Latin America, the Asia Pacific region, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Founded in 2018, the corporation is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- CEO
- Charles Victor Magro