TGM's two-stage DCF values Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) between $35.11 and $65.57 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $46.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$77.29 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7%/yr | 8.5% | $35.11 |
| Base case | 3.7%/yr | 7.5% | $46.83 |
| Optimistic | 6.7%/yr | 6.5% | $65.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $68.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$77.29
Market-Implied Growth
+16.3%/yr
vs +12.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$35.11 – $65.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTVA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.67B shares · net cash $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$46.83
-39.4% vs $77.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $77.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $59.83 | $66.89 | $76.30 | $89.46 | $109 |
| 6.5% | $48.35 | $52.59 | $57.88 | $64.68 | $73.74 |
| 7.5% | $40.69 | $43.49 | $46.83 | $50.92 | $56.02 |
| 8.5% | $35.23 | $37.19 | $39.47 | $42.16 | $45.39 |
| 9.5% | $31.13 | $32.57 | $34.21 | $36.10 | $38.30 |
