Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CTNT
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $821.27 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $1,063.68 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $1,537.62 |
Current Price
$2.93
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1,063.68
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CTNT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1M · 0.00B shares · net debt $981698
Estimated Fair Value
$1063.68
+36262.6% vs $2.93
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1390 | $1568 | $1804 | $2135 | $2630 |
| 6.5% | $1102 | $1208 | $1341 | $1512 | $1740 |
| 7.5% | $909 | $980 | $1064 | $1166 | $1295 |
| 8.5% | $772 | $821 | $879 | $946 | $1027 |
| 9.5% | $669 | $705 | $746 | $794 | $849 |
