Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRWD
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($34.74) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.2% | $23.23 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.2% | $28.53 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.2% | $34.74 |
Current Price
$207.80
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$28.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRWD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $998.5M · 1.02B shares · net cash $4.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$28.53
-86.3% vs $207.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $207.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $33.45 | $35.45 | $37.79 | $40.58 | $43.96 |
| 9.2% | $29.36 | $30.80 | $32.46 | $34.38 | $36.64 |
| 10.2% | $26.22 | $27.31 | $28.53 | $29.92 | $31.51 |
| 11.2% | $23.75 | $24.58 | $25.51 | $26.56 | $27.73 |
| 12.2% | $21.74 | $22.40 | $23.13 | $23.94 | $24.83 |
