TGM's two-stage DCF values CorVel Corporation (CRVL) between $30.86 and $50.90 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.99. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$75.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 10.0% | $30.86 |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 9.0% | $38.99 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 8.0% | $50.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $34.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$75.87
Market-Implied Growth
+28.9%/yr
vs +9.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.86 – $50.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRVL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $80.8M · 0.05B shares · net cash $233.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$38.99
-48.6% vs $75.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $75.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $46.97 | $50.58 | $54.99 | $60.49 | $67.56 |
| 8.0% | $40.17 | $42.63 | $45.53 | $49.00 | $53.25 |
| 9.0% | $35.20 | $36.96 | $38.99 | $41.36 | $44.16 |
| 10.0% | $31.41 | $32.72 | $34.21 | $35.91 | $37.87 |
| 11.0% | $28.42 | $29.43 | $30.56 | $31.83 | $33.27 |
