TGM's two-stage DCF values Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT) between $1.40 and $2.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $1.76. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.3%/yr | 11.8% | $1.40 |
| Base case | 4.3%/yr | 10.8% | $1.76 |
| Optimistic | 7.3%/yr | 9.8% | $2.26 |
Current Price
$2.16
Market-Implied Growth
+9.5%/yr
vs +4.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$1.40 – $2.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRNT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.9M · 0.09B shares · net cash $2.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.76
-18.3% vs $2.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $2.07 | $2.19 | $2.33 | $2.48 | $2.67 |
| 9.8% | $1.82 | $1.91 | $2.01 | $2.12 | $2.25 |
| 10.8% | $1.62 | $1.69 | $1.76 | $1.85 | $1.95 |
| 11.8% | $1.46 | $1.52 | $1.58 | $1.64 | $1.71 |
| 12.8% | $1.33 | $1.38 | $1.42 | $1.47 | $1.53 |
