Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CRL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($108.03) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$280.76 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.3%/yr | 11.9% | $47.68 |
| Base case | 5.3%/yr | 10.9% | $73.13 |
| Optimistic | 8.3%/yr | 9.9% | $108.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $87.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$280.76
Market-Implied Growth
+31.3%/yr
vs +6.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$73.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CRL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $433.5M · 0.05B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$73.13
-74.0% vs $280.76
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $280.76; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $94.59 | $103 | $112 | $123 | $136 |
| 9.9% | $77.01 | $83.12 | $90.05 | $97.97 | $107 |
| 10.9% | $63.19 | $67.88 | $73.13 | $79.03 | $85.71 |
| 11.9% | $52.04 | $55.74 | $59.82 | $64.35 | $69.42 |
| 12.9% | $42.86 | $45.83 | $49.08 | $52.65 | $56.60 |