Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($79.73) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$220.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.5% | $53.35 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.5% | $62.67 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.5% | $79.73 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $102.23 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$220.02
Market-Implied Growth
+37.7%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$62.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $212.7M · 0.06B shares · net cash $568.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$62.67
-71.5% vs $220.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $220.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $73.49 | $78.15 | $83.73 | $90.55 | $99.06 |
| 8.5% | $64.37 | $67.64 | $71.44 | $75.94 | $81.32 |
| 9.5% | $57.53 | $59.93 | $62.67 | $65.82 | $69.49 |
| 10.5% | $52.21 | $54.04 | $56.08 | $58.40 | $61.04 |
| 11.5% | $47.96 | $49.38 | $50.96 | $52.72 | $54.70 |
