Why we don't show a single “fair value” for COLL
Even the conservative scenario ($178.73) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.8% | $178.73 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.8% | $249.85 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.8% | $345.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $637.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.02
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$249.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for COLL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $238.8M · 0.03B shares · net debt $685.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$249.85
+1034.4% vs $22.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $330 | $372 | $426 | $499 | $605 |
| 6.8% | $260 | $286 | $317 | $357 | $409 |
| 7.8% | $212 | $229 | $250 | $275 | $305 |
| 8.8% | $178 | $190 | $204 | $221 | $240 |
| 9.8% | $151 | $161 | $171 | $183 | $196 |
